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Rubikon vs Karpaty Halych — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Rubikon
Rubikon
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Karpaty Halych
Karpaty Halych
4/3/2021Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 15Knyazha-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Rubikon22%
×Draw22%
Karpaty Halych56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubikon
1.11
Karpaty Halych
1.90

Karpaty Halych creates 71% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 20 away

creates per match

Rubikon
0.77
Karpaty Halych
1.65

allows per match

Rubikon
2.15
Karpaty Halych
1.45

finishing

Rubikon+0.00on par
Karpaty Halych+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubikon ↓

Karpaty Halych →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rubikon or draw
44%
Rubikon or Karpaty Halych
78%
Draw or Karpaty Halych
78%

Winning margin

Rubikon wins by 2+
8%
Karpaty Halych wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Rubikon 1+ goals
67%
Rubikon 2+ goals
30%
Rubikon 3+ goals
10%
Karpaty Halych 1+ goals
85%
Karpaty Halych 2+ goals
56%
Karpaty Halych 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Rubikon (draw refunded)
28%
Karpaty Halych (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubikon at home — creates 0.77, concedes 2.15 · 26 matches

Karpaty Halych away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubikon attack 0.77 + Karpaty Halych defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.11

Karpaty Halych attack 1.65 + Rubikon defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Rubikon scores more
22%
level
22%
Karpaty Halych scores more
56%

Karpaty Halych at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Karpaty Halych will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Rubikon 0–2 Karpaty Halych

Karpaty Halych beat Rubikon 2-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Knyazha-Arena in Shchaslyve.