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Rubikon vs Karpaty — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Rubikon
Rubikon
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 0
Karpaty
Karpaty
11/8/2021Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 17Knyazha-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Rubikon22%
×Draw23%
Karpaty55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubikon
1.05
Karpaty
1.79

Karpaty creates 70% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 21 away

creates per match

Rubikon
0.77
Karpaty
1.43

allows per match

Rubikon
2.15
Karpaty
1.33

finishing

Rubikon+0.00on par
Karpaty+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubikon ↓

Karpaty →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rubikon or draw
45%
Rubikon or Karpaty
77%
Draw or Karpaty
78%

Winning margin

Rubikon wins by 2+
8%
Karpaty wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Rubikon 1+ goals
65%
Rubikon 2+ goals
28%
Rubikon 3+ goals
9%
Karpaty 1+ goals
83%
Karpaty 2+ goals
53%
Karpaty 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Rubikon (draw refunded)
29%
Karpaty (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubikon at home — creates 0.77, concedes 2.15 · 26 matches

Karpaty away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubikon attack 0.77 + Karpaty defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.05

Karpaty attack 1.43 + Rubikon defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Rubikon scores more
22%
level
23%
Karpaty scores more
55%

Karpaty at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Karpaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rubikon vs Karpaty

Karpaty beat Rubikon 5-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on November 8, 2021.

The match was played at Knyazha-Arena in Shchaslyve.