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Rubikon vs Chernihiv — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Rubikon
Rubikon
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chernihiv
Chernihiv
8/8/2021Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 3Knyazha-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Rubikon23%
×Draw26%
Chernihiv51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubikon
0.92
Chernihiv
1.52

Chernihiv creates 65% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 31 away

creates per match

Rubikon
0.77
Chernihiv
0.90

allows per match

Rubikon
2.15
Chernihiv
1.06

finishing

Rubikon+0.00on par
Chernihiv+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubikon ↓

Chernihiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rubikon or draw
49%
Rubikon or Chernihiv
74%
Draw or Chernihiv
77%

Winning margin

Rubikon wins by 2+
8%
Chernihiv wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Rubikon 1+ goals
60%
Rubikon 2+ goals
23%
Rubikon 3+ goals
7%
Chernihiv 1+ goals
78%
Chernihiv 2+ goals
45%
Chernihiv 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Rubikon (draw refunded)
31%
Chernihiv (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubikon at home — creates 0.77, concedes 2.15 · 26 matches

Chernihiv away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.06 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubikon attack 0.77 + Chernihiv defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.92

Chernihiv attack 0.90 + Rubikon defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rubikon scores more
23%
level
26%
Chernihiv scores more
51%

Chernihiv at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chernihiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Rubikon 2–0 Chernihiv

Rubikon beat Chernihiv 2-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on August 8, 2021.

The match was played at Knyazha-Arena in Shchaslyve.