Rubikon 1–3 Bukovyna: Result & Stats

Rubikon

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Bukovyna

3/23/2021

Druha Liga - Group A · Group A - 9Knyazha-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Rubikon28%

×Draw24%

Bukovyna48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RubikonExpected goals in this matchBukovyna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.64

Rubikon

1.19

Bukovyna

1.64

Bukovyna creates 38% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 31 away

0.77

creates per match

1.13

2.15

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Rubikon

0.77

Bukovyna

1.13

allows per match

Rubikon

2.15

Bukovyna

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rubikon+0.00on par

Bukovyna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubikon ↓

Bukovyna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Rubikon or draw

52%

Rubikon or Bukovyna

76%

Draw or Bukovyna

72%

Winning margin

Rubikon wins by 2+

11%

Bukovyna wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Rubikon 1+ goals

70%

Rubikon 2+ goals

33%

Rubikon 3+ goals

12%

Bukovyna 1+ goals

81%

Bukovyna 2+ goals

49%

Bukovyna 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Rubikon (draw refunded)

37%

Bukovyna (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubikon at home — creates 0.77, concedes 2.15 · 26 matches

Bukovyna away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubikon attack 0.77 + Bukovyna defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.19

Bukovyna attack 1.13 + Rubikon defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rubikon scores more

28%

level

24%

Bukovyna scores more

48%

Bukovyna at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bukovyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff