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RTC vs Ugyen Academy — Premier League 2023

RTC
RTC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ugyen Academy
Ugyen Academy
8/30/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3RTC Football Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

RTC72%
×Draw15%
Ugyen Academy13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RTC
3.10
Ugyen Academy
1.29

RTC creates 140% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 20 away

creates per match

RTC
2.66
Ugyen Academy
1.55

allows per match

RTC
1.03
Ugyen Academy
3.55

finishing

RTC+0.00on par
Ugyen Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RTC ↓

Ugyen Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

RTC or draw
87%
RTC or Ugyen Academy
85%
Draw or Ugyen Academy
28%

Winning margin

RTC wins by 2+
53%
Ugyen Academy wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

RTC 1+ goals
95%
RTC 2+ goals
81%
RTC 3+ goals
58%
Ugyen Academy 1+ goals
72%
Ugyen Academy 2+ goals
37%
Ugyen Academy 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

RTC (draw refunded)
85%
Ugyen Academy (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RTC at home — creates 2.66, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Ugyen Academy away — creates 1.55, concedes 3.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RTC attack 2.66 + Ugyen Academy defence 3.55 → ÷2 → 3.10

Ugyen Academy attack 1.55 + RTC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

RTC scores more
72%
level
15%
Ugyen Academy scores more
13%

RTC at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "RTC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: RTC 3–1 Ugyen Academy

RTC beat Ugyen Academy 3-1 in Premier League on August 30, 2023.

The match was played at RTC Football Ground in Thimphu.