RTC 2–0 Thimphu Raven: Result & Stats

RTC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Thimphu Raven

11/14/2023

Premier League · Round 7RTC Football Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

RTC78%

×Draw13%

Thimphu Raven9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RTCExpected goals in this matchThimphu Raven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.17

1.02

RTC

3.17

Thimphu Raven

1.02

RTC creates 211% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 9 away

2.66

creates per match

1.00

1.03

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

RTC

2.66

Thimphu Raven

1.00

allows per match

RTC

1.03

Thimphu Raven

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RTC+0.00on par

Thimphu Raven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RTC ↓

Thimphu Raven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

RTC or draw

91%

RTC or Thimphu Raven

87%

Draw or Thimphu Raven

22%

Winning margin

RTC wins by 2+

59%

Thimphu Raven wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

RTC 1+ goals

96%

RTC 2+ goals

82%

RTC 3+ goals

60%

Thimphu Raven 1+ goals

64%

Thimphu Raven 2+ goals

27%

Thimphu Raven 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

RTC (draw refunded)

90%

Thimphu Raven (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RTC at home — creates 2.66, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Thimphu Raven away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RTC attack 2.66 + Thimphu Raven defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.17

Thimphu Raven attack 1.00 + RTC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

RTC scores more

78%

level

13%

Thimphu Raven scores more

9%

RTC at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "RTC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff