RTC 2–1 Southern City: Result & Stats

RTC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Southern City

4/24/2025

Premier League · Regular SeasonRTC Football Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

RTC87%

×Draw9%

Southern City4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RTCExpected goals in this matchSouthern City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.55

0.73

RTC

3.55

Southern City

0.73

RTC creates 386% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 9 away

2.66

creates per match

0.44

1.03

allows per match

4.44

creates per match

RTC

2.66

Southern City

0.44

allows per match

RTC

1.03

Southern City

4.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RTC+0.00on par

Southern City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RTC ↓

Southern City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

59%41%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

RTC or draw

96%

RTC or Southern City

91%

Draw or Southern City

13%

Winning margin

RTC wins by 2+

71%

Southern City wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

RTC 1+ goals

97%

RTC 2+ goals

86%

RTC 3+ goals

67%

Southern City 1+ goals

52%

Southern City 2+ goals

17%

Southern City 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

RTC (draw refunded)

95%

Southern City (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RTC at home — creates 2.66, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Southern City away — creates 0.44, concedes 4.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RTC attack 2.66 + Southern City defence 4.44 → ÷2 → 3.55

Southern City attack 0.44 + RTC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

RTC scores more

87%

level

9%

Southern City scores more

4%

RTC at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "RTC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff