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RTC vs Phuntsholing Heroes — Premier League 2023

RTC
RTC
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Phuntsholing Heroes
Phuntsholing Heroes
6/19/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3RTC Football Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

RTC70%
×Draw18%
Phuntsholing Heroes13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RTC
2.38
Phuntsholing Heroes
0.91

RTC creates 162% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 9 away

creates per match

RTC
2.66
Phuntsholing Heroes
0.78

allows per match

RTC
1.03
Phuntsholing Heroes
2.11

finishing

RTC+0.00on par
Phuntsholing Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RTC ↓

Phuntsholing Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

RTC or draw
87%
RTC or Phuntsholing Heroes
82%
Draw or Phuntsholing Heroes
30%

Winning margin

RTC wins by 2+
47%
Phuntsholing Heroes wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

RTC 1+ goals
91%
RTC 2+ goals
68%
RTC 3+ goals
42%
Phuntsholing Heroes 1+ goals
60%
Phuntsholing Heroes 2+ goals
23%
Phuntsholing Heroes 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

RTC (draw refunded)
85%
Phuntsholing Heroes (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RTC at home — creates 2.66, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Phuntsholing Heroes away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RTC attack 2.66 + Phuntsholing Heroes defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.38

Phuntsholing Heroes attack 0.78 + RTC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

RTC scores more
70%
level
18%
Phuntsholing Heroes scores more
13%

RTC at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "RTC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: RTC 4–1 Phuntsholing Heroes

RTC beat Phuntsholing Heroes 4-1 in Premier League on June 19, 2024.

The match was played at RTC Football Ground in Thimphu.