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RTC vs Paro — Premier League 2023

RTC
RTC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Paro
Paro
9/15/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Regular SeasonRTC Football Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

RTC27%
×Draw19%
Paro54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RTC
1.71
Paro
2.46

Paro creates 44% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

creates per match

RTC
2.66
Paro
3.88

allows per match

RTC
1.03
Paro
0.75

finishing

RTC+0.00on par
Paro+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RTC ↓

Paro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

RTC or draw
46%
RTC or Paro
81%
Draw or Paro
73%

Winning margin

RTC wins by 2+
13%
Paro wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

RTC 1+ goals
82%
RTC 2+ goals
51%
RTC 3+ goals
24%
Paro 1+ goals
91%
Paro 2+ goals
70%
Paro 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

RTC (draw refunded)
33%
Paro (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RTC at home — creates 2.66, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Paro away — creates 3.88, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RTC attack 2.66 + Paro defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Paro attack 3.88 + RTC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

RTC scores more
27%
level
19%
Paro scores more
54%

Paro at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Paro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: RTC 2–0 Paro

RTC beat Paro 2-0 in Premier League on September 15, 2025.

The match was played at RTC Football Ground in Thimphu.