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RSV Eintracht vs Victoria Seelow — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

RSV Eintracht
RSV Eintracht
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Victoria Seelow
Victoria Seelow
4/9/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 23Heinrich-Zille-Straße Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

RSV Eintracht60%
×Draw20%
Victoria Seelow20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSV Eintracht
2.23
Victoria Seelow
1.23

RSV Eintracht creates 81% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 18 away

creates per match

RSV Eintracht
1.69
Victoria Seelow
0.89

allows per match

RSV Eintracht
1.56
Victoria Seelow
2.78

finishing

RSV Eintracht+0.00on par
Victoria Seelow+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSV Eintracht ↓

Victoria Seelow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

RSV Eintracht or draw
80%
RSV Eintracht or Victoria Seelow
80%
Draw or Victoria Seelow
40%

Winning margin

RSV Eintracht wins by 2+
37%
Victoria Seelow wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

RSV Eintracht 1+ goals
89%
RSV Eintracht 2+ goals
65%
RSV Eintracht 3+ goals
38%
Victoria Seelow 1+ goals
71%
Victoria Seelow 2+ goals
35%
Victoria Seelow 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

RSV Eintracht (draw refunded)
75%
Victoria Seelow (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSV Eintracht at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

Victoria Seelow away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSV Eintracht attack 1.69 + Victoria Seelow defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.23

Victoria Seelow attack 0.89 + RSV Eintracht defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

RSV Eintracht scores more
60%
level
20%
Victoria Seelow scores more
20%

RSV Eintracht at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "RSV Eintracht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: RSV Eintracht 2–2 Victoria Seelow

RSV Eintracht and Victoria Seelow drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Heinrich-Zille-Straße Kunstrasenplatz in Stahnsdorf.