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RSV Eintracht vs Torgelower SV Greif — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

RSV Eintracht
RSV Eintracht
FT
3 – 2
Torgelower SV Greif
Torgelower SV Greif
8/14/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 2Sportplatz Heinrich-Zille-Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

RSV Eintracht31%
×Draw23%
Torgelower SV Greif45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSV Eintracht
1.40
Torgelower SV Greif
1.73

Torgelower SV Greif creates 24% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 18 away

creates per match

RSV Eintracht
1.69
Torgelower SV Greif
1.89

allows per match

RSV Eintracht
1.56
Torgelower SV Greif
1.11

finishing

RSV Eintracht+0.00on par
Torgelower SV Greif+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSV Eintracht ↓

Torgelower SV Greif →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

RSV Eintracht or draw
55%
RSV Eintracht or Torgelower SV Greif
77%
Draw or Torgelower SV Greif
69%

Winning margin

RSV Eintracht wins by 2+
14%
Torgelower SV Greif wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

RSV Eintracht 1+ goals
75%
RSV Eintracht 2+ goals
41%
RSV Eintracht 3+ goals
17%
Torgelower SV Greif 1+ goals
82%
Torgelower SV Greif 2+ goals
52%
Torgelower SV Greif 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

RSV Eintracht (draw refunded)
41%
Torgelower SV Greif (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSV Eintracht at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

Torgelower SV Greif away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSV Eintracht attack 1.69 + Torgelower SV Greif defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.40

Torgelower SV Greif attack 1.89 + RSV Eintracht defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

RSV Eintracht scores more
31%
level
23%
Torgelower SV Greif scores more
45%

Torgelower SV Greif at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Torgelower SV Greif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: RSV Eintracht 3–2 Torgelower SV Greif

RSV Eintracht beat Torgelower SV Greif 3-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Heinrich-Zille-Straße in Stahnsdorf.