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RSV Eintracht vs SV Babelsberg 03 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

RSV Eintracht
RSV Eintracht
FT
2 – 1
SV Babelsberg 03
SV Babelsberg 03
7/25/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportplatz Heinrich-Zille-Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

RSV Eintracht33%
×Draw19%
SV Babelsberg 0348%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSV Eintracht
2.16
SV Babelsberg 03
2.60

SV Babelsberg 03 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

creates per match

RSV Eintracht
3.18
SV Babelsberg 03
3.21

allows per match

RSV Eintracht
2.00
SV Babelsberg 03
1.14

finishing

RSV Eintracht+0.00on par
SV Babelsberg 03+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSV Eintracht ↓

SV Babelsberg 03 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

RSV Eintracht or draw
52%
RSV Eintracht or SV Babelsberg 03
81%
Draw or SV Babelsberg 03
67%

Winning margin

RSV Eintracht wins by 2+
18%
SV Babelsberg 03 wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

RSV Eintracht 1+ goals
88%
RSV Eintracht 2+ goals
63%
RSV Eintracht 3+ goals
36%
SV Babelsberg 03 1+ goals
92%
SV Babelsberg 03 2+ goals
73%
SV Babelsberg 03 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

RSV Eintracht (draw refunded)
41%
SV Babelsberg 03 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSV Eintracht at home — creates 3.18, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

SV Babelsberg 03 away — creates 3.21, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSV Eintracht attack 3.18 + SV Babelsberg 03 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 2.16

SV Babelsberg 03 attack 3.21 + RSV Eintracht defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

RSV Eintracht scores more
33%
level
19%
SV Babelsberg 03 scores more
48%

SV Babelsberg 03 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SV Babelsberg 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RSV Eintracht vs SV Babelsberg 03

RSV Eintracht beat SV Babelsberg 03 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 25, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz Heinrich-Zille-Straße in Stahnsdorf.