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RSV Eintracht vs Rostocker FC — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

RSV Eintracht
RSV Eintracht
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rostocker FC
Rostocker FC
9/17/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 6Sportplatz Heinrich-Zille-Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

RSV Eintracht59%
×Draw19%
Rostocker FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSV Eintracht
2.47
Rostocker FC
1.48

RSV Eintracht creates 67% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 67 away

creates per match

RSV Eintracht
1.69
Rostocker FC
1.40

allows per match

RSV Eintracht
1.56
Rostocker FC
3.25

finishing

RSV Eintracht+0.00on par
Rostocker FC+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSV Eintracht ↓

Rostocker FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

RSV Eintracht or draw
78%
RSV Eintracht or Rostocker FC
81%
Draw or Rostocker FC
41%

Winning margin

RSV Eintracht wins by 2+
38%
Rostocker FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

RSV Eintracht 1+ goals
91%
RSV Eintracht 2+ goals
70%
RSV Eintracht 3+ goals
44%
Rostocker FC 1+ goals
77%
Rostocker FC 2+ goals
43%
Rostocker FC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

RSV Eintracht (draw refunded)
73%
Rostocker FC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSV Eintracht at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

Rostocker FC away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSV Eintracht attack 1.69 + Rostocker FC defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.47

Rostocker FC attack 1.40 + RSV Eintracht defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

RSV Eintracht scores more
59%
level
19%
Rostocker FC scores more
22%

RSV Eintracht at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "RSV Eintracht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: RSV Eintracht 1–1 Rostocker FC

RSV Eintracht and Rostocker FC drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Heinrich-Zille-Straße in Stahnsdorf.