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RSV Eintracht vs Greifswalder FC — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

RSV Eintracht
RSV Eintracht
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
5/26/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 29Sportplatz Heinrich-Zille-Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

RSV Eintracht29%
×Draw23%
Greifswalder FC49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSV Eintracht
1.37
Greifswalder FC
1.85

Greifswalder FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 21 away

creates per match

RSV Eintracht
1.69
Greifswalder FC
2.14

allows per match

RSV Eintracht
1.56
Greifswalder FC
1.05

finishing

RSV Eintracht+0.00on par
Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSV Eintracht ↓

Greifswalder FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

RSV Eintracht or draw
51%
RSV Eintracht or Greifswalder FC
77%
Draw or Greifswalder FC
71%

Winning margin

RSV Eintracht wins by 2+
12%
Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

RSV Eintracht 1+ goals
75%
RSV Eintracht 2+ goals
40%
RSV Eintracht 3+ goals
16%
Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
84%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
55%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

RSV Eintracht (draw refunded)
37%
Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSV Eintracht at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

Greifswalder FC away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSV Eintracht attack 1.69 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.37

Greifswalder FC attack 2.14 + RSV Eintracht defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

RSV Eintracht scores more
29%
level
23%
Greifswalder FC scores more
49%

Greifswalder FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: RSV Eintracht 1–4 Greifswalder FC

Greifswalder FC beat RSV Eintracht 4-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on May 26, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Heinrich-Zille-Straße in Stahnsdorf.