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RSV Eintracht vs CFC Hertha — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

RSV Eintracht
RSV Eintracht
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CFC Hertha
CFC Hertha
5/7/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 27Sportplatz Heinrich-Zille-Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

RSV Eintracht43%
×Draw24%
CFC Hertha33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSV Eintracht
1.65
CFC Hertha
1.43

RSV Eintracht creates 15% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 44 away

creates per match

RSV Eintracht
1.69
CFC Hertha
1.30

allows per match

RSV Eintracht
1.56
CFC Hertha
1.61

finishing

RSV Eintracht+0.00on par
CFC Hertha+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSV Eintracht ↓

CFC Hertha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

RSV Eintracht or draw
67%
RSV Eintracht or CFC Hertha
76%
Draw or CFC Hertha
57%

Winning margin

RSV Eintracht wins by 2+
22%
CFC Hertha wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

RSV Eintracht 1+ goals
81%
RSV Eintracht 2+ goals
49%
RSV Eintracht 3+ goals
23%
CFC Hertha 1+ goals
76%
CFC Hertha 2+ goals
42%
CFC Hertha 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

RSV Eintracht (draw refunded)
56%
CFC Hertha (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSV Eintracht at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

CFC Hertha away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSV Eintracht attack 1.69 + CFC Hertha defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.65

CFC Hertha attack 1.30 + RSV Eintracht defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

RSV Eintracht scores more
43%
level
24%
CFC Hertha scores more
33%

RSV Eintracht at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "RSV Eintracht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RSV Eintracht vs CFC Hertha

CFC Hertha beat RSV Eintracht 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Heinrich-Zille-Straße in Stahnsdorf.