RSK Rabrovo 0–1 Sloga Kraljevo: Result & Stats

RSK Rabrovo

FT

0 – 1

Sloga Kraljevo

9/26/2021

Srpska Liga - West · West - 7Stadion RSK Rabrovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

RSK Rabrovo38%

×Draw22%

Sloga Kraljevo40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RSK RabrovoExpected goals in this matchSloga Kraljevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.81

RSK Rabrovo

1.77

Sloga Kraljevo

1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 3 away

1.20

creates per match

1.67

1.95

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

RSK Rabrovo

1.20

Sloga Kraljevo

1.67

allows per match

RSK Rabrovo

1.95

Sloga Kraljevo

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RSK Rabrovo+0.00on par

Sloga Kraljevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSK Rabrovo ↓

Sloga Kraljevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

RSK Rabrovo or draw

60%

RSK Rabrovo or Sloga Kraljevo

78%

Draw or Sloga Kraljevo

62%

Winning margin

RSK Rabrovo wins by 2+

20%

Sloga Kraljevo wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

RSK Rabrovo 1+ goals

83%

RSK Rabrovo 2+ goals

53%

RSK Rabrovo 3+ goals

26%

Sloga Kraljevo 1+ goals

84%

Sloga Kraljevo 2+ goals

54%

Sloga Kraljevo 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

RSK Rabrovo (draw refunded)

49%

Sloga Kraljevo (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSK Rabrovo at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

Sloga Kraljevo away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSK Rabrovo attack 1.20 + Sloga Kraljevo defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sloga Kraljevo attack 1.67 + RSK Rabrovo defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

RSK Rabrovo scores more

38%

level

22%

Sloga Kraljevo scores more

40%

Sloga Kraljevo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sloga Kraljevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff