RSD Alcalá 3–2 Villaviciosa Odón: Result & Stats

RSD Alcalá

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Villaviciosa Odón

5/1/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 42Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

RSD Alcalá54%

×Draw22%

Villaviciosa Odón23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RSD AlcaláExpected goals in this matchVillaviciosa Odón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.18

RSD Alcalá

1.92

Villaviciosa Odón

1.18

RSD Alcalá creates 63% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 20 away

1.55

creates per match

1.50

0.86

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

RSD Alcalá

1.55

Villaviciosa Odón

1.50

allows per match

RSD Alcalá

0.86

Villaviciosa Odón

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Villaviciosa Odón+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSD Alcalá ↓

Villaviciosa Odón →

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

RSD Alcalá or draw

77%

RSD Alcalá or Villaviciosa Odón

78%

Draw or Villaviciosa Odón

46%

Winning margin

RSD Alcalá wins by 2+

31%

Villaviciosa Odón wins by 2+

Team goals

RSD Alcalá 1+ goals

85%

RSD Alcalá 2+ goals

57%

RSD Alcalá 3+ goals

30%

Villaviciosa Odón 1+ goals

69%

Villaviciosa Odón 2+ goals

33%

Villaviciosa Odón 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)

70%

Villaviciosa Odón (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

RSD Alcalá at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 99 matches

Villaviciosa Odón away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

RSD Alcalá attack 1.55 + Villaviciosa Odón defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.92

Villaviciosa Odón attack 1.50 + RSD Alcalá defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

RSD Alcalá scores more

54%

level

22%

Villaviciosa Odón scores more

23%

RSD Alcalá at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "RSD Alcalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RSD Alcalá vs Villaviciosa Odón

RSD Alcalá beat Villaviciosa Odón 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val in Alcalá de Henares.

RSD Alcalá vs Villaviciosa Odón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: RSD Alcalá vs Villaviciosa Odón