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RSD Alcalá vs Villanueva Pardillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Villanueva Pardillo
Villanueva Pardillo
3/9/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 24Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

RSD Alcalá47%
×Draw28%
Villanueva Pardillo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSD Alcalá
1.33
Villanueva Pardillo
0.88

RSD Alcalá creates 51% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 50 away

creates per match

RSD Alcalá
1.55
Villanueva Pardillo
0.90

allows per match

RSD Alcalá
0.86
Villanueva Pardillo
1.10

finishing

RSD Alcalá+0.00on par
Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSD Alcalá ↓

Villanueva Pardillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

RSD Alcalá or draw
75%
RSD Alcalá or Villanueva Pardillo
72%
Draw or Villanueva Pardillo
53%

Winning margin

RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
22%
Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
74%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
38%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
15%
Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals
59%
Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals
22%
Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
66%
Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSD Alcalá at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 99 matches

Villanueva Pardillo away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSD Alcalá attack 1.55 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Villanueva Pardillo attack 0.90 + RSD Alcalá defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

RSD Alcalá scores more
47%
level
28%
Villanueva Pardillo scores more
25%

RSD Alcalá at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "RSD Alcalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RSD Alcalá vs Villanueva Pardillo

RSD Alcalá and Villanueva Pardillo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val in Alcalá de Henares.