RSD Alcalá 2–0 Torrejón: Result & Stats

RSD Alcalá

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Torrejón

1/23/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 24Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

RSD Alcalá48%

×Draw26%

Torrejón26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RSD AlcaláExpected goals in this matchTorrejón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.05

RSD Alcalá

1.52

Torrejón

1.05

RSD Alcalá creates 45% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 115 away

1.55

creates per match

1.25

0.86

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

RSD Alcalá

1.55

Torrejón

1.25

allows per match

RSD Alcalá

0.86

Torrejón

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Torrejón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSD Alcalá ↓

Torrejón →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

RSD Alcalá or draw

74%

RSD Alcalá or Torrejón

74%

Draw or Torrejón

52%

Winning margin

RSD Alcalá wins by 2+

24%

Torrejón wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

RSD Alcalá 1+ goals

78%

RSD Alcalá 2+ goals

45%

RSD Alcalá 3+ goals

20%

Torrejón 1+ goals

65%

Torrejón 2+ goals

28%

Torrejón 3+ goals

Draw no bet

RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)

65%

Torrejón (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

RSD Alcalá at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 99 matches

Torrejón away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

RSD Alcalá attack 1.55 + Torrejón defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Torrejón attack 1.25 + RSD Alcalá defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

RSD Alcalá scores more

48%

level

26%

Torrejón scores more

26%

RSD Alcalá at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "RSD Alcalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff