RSD Alcalá 1–1 Las Rozas: Result & Stats

RSD Alcalá

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Las Rozas

2/18/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 21Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

RSD Alcalá44%

×Draw27%

Las Rozas29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RSD AlcaláExpected goals in this matchLas Rozas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.04

RSD Alcalá

1.35

Las Rozas

1.04

RSD Alcalá creates 30% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 88 away

1.55

creates per match

1.23

0.86

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

RSD Alcalá

1.55

Las Rozas

1.23

allows per match

RSD Alcalá

0.86

Las Rozas

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSD Alcalá ↓

Las Rozas →

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

RSD Alcalá or draw

71%

RSD Alcalá or Las Rozas

73%

Draw or Las Rozas

56%

Winning margin

RSD Alcalá wins by 2+

20%

Las Rozas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

RSD Alcalá 1+ goals

74%

RSD Alcalá 2+ goals

39%

RSD Alcalá 3+ goals

15%

Las Rozas 1+ goals

65%

Las Rozas 2+ goals

28%

Las Rozas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)

60%

Las Rozas (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

RSD Alcalá at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 99 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

RSD Alcalá attack 1.55 + Las Rozas defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.35

Las Rozas attack 1.23 + RSD Alcalá defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

RSD Alcalá scores more

44%

level

27%

Las Rozas scores more

29%

RSD Alcalá at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "RSD Alcalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff