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RSD Alcalá vs Galapagar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Galapagar
Galapagar
2/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 21Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

RSD Alcalá49%
×Draw27%
Galapagar24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSD Alcalá
1.46
Galapagar
0.93

RSD Alcalá creates 57% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 86 away

creates per match

RSD Alcalá
1.55
Galapagar
0.99

allows per match

RSD Alcalá
0.86
Galapagar
1.37

finishing

RSD Alcalá+0.00on par
Galapagar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSD Alcalá ↓

Galapagar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

RSD Alcalá or draw
76%
RSD Alcalá or Galapagar
73%
Draw or Galapagar
51%

Winning margin

RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
25%
Galapagar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
77%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
43%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
18%
Galapagar 1+ goals
61%
Galapagar 2+ goals
24%
Galapagar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
67%
Galapagar (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSD Alcalá at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 99 matches

Galapagar away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.37 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSD Alcalá attack 1.55 + Galapagar defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.46

Galapagar attack 0.99 + RSD Alcalá defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

RSD Alcalá scores more
49%
level
27%
Galapagar scores more
24%

RSD Alcalá at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "RSD Alcalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: RSD Alcalá 1–1 Galapagar

RSD Alcalá and Galapagar drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val in Alcalá de Henares.