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RSD Alcalá vs El Álamo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
El Álamo
El Álamo
1/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 21Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

RSD Alcalá57%
×Draw24%
El Álamo19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSD Alcalá
1.69
El Álamo
0.85

RSD Alcalá creates 99% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 47 away

creates per match

RSD Alcalá
1.55
El Álamo
0.85

allows per match

RSD Alcalá
0.86
El Álamo
1.83

finishing

RSD Alcalá+0.00on par
El Álamo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSD Alcalá ↓

El Álamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

RSD Alcalá or draw
81%
RSD Alcalá or El Álamo
76%
Draw or El Álamo
43%

Winning margin

RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
32%
El Álamo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
82%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
50%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
24%
El Álamo 1+ goals
57%
El Álamo 2+ goals
21%
El Álamo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
75%
El Álamo (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSD Alcalá at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 99 matches

El Álamo away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSD Alcalá attack 1.55 + El Álamo defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.69

El Álamo attack 0.85 + RSD Alcalá defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

RSD Alcalá scores more
57%
level
24%
El Álamo scores more
19%

RSD Alcalá at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "RSD Alcalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

RSD Alcalá 1 – 2 El Álamo

El Álamo beat RSD Alcalá 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val in Alcalá de Henares.