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RSC Internacional vs Torrejón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

RSC Internacional
RSC Internacional
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Torrejón
Torrejón
12/11/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 13Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RSC Internacional62%
×Draw21%
Torrejón17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSC Internacional
2.01
Torrejón
0.96

RSC Internacional creates 109% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 115 away

creates per match

RSC Internacional
2.53
Torrejón
1.25

allows per match

RSC Internacional
0.67
Torrejón
1.50

finishing

RSC Internacional+0.00on par
Torrejón+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSC Internacional ↓

Torrejón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

RSC Internacional or draw
83%
RSC Internacional or Torrejón
79%
Draw or Torrejón
38%

Winning margin

RSC Internacional wins by 2+
37%
Torrejón wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

RSC Internacional 1+ goals
87%
RSC Internacional 2+ goals
59%
RSC Internacional 3+ goals
32%
Torrejón 1+ goals
62%
Torrejón 2+ goals
25%
Torrejón 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

RSC Internacional (draw refunded)
78%
Torrejón (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSC Internacional at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Torrejón away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSC Internacional attack 2.53 + Torrejón defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.01

Torrejón attack 1.25 + RSC Internacional defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

RSC Internacional scores more
62%
level
21%
Torrejón scores more
17%

RSC Internacional at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "RSC Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RSC Internacional vs Torrejón

RSC Internacional beat Torrejón 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 11, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 6 in Madrid.