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Rozova dolina vs Yambol 1915 — Third League - Southeast 2018

Rozova dolina
Rozova dolina
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Yambol 1915
Yambol 1915
11/25/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 19Stadion Sevtopolis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Rozova dolina57%
×Draw22%
Yambol 191520%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rozova dolina
1.88
Yambol 1915
1.02

Rozova dolina creates 84% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 118 away

creates per match

Rozova dolina
2.10
Yambol 1915
1.08

allows per match

Rozova dolina
0.96
Yambol 1915
1.66

finishing

Rozova dolina+0.00on par
Yambol 1915+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rozova dolina ↓

Yambol 1915 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Rozova dolina or draw
80%
Rozova dolina or Yambol 1915
78%
Draw or Yambol 1915
43%

Winning margin

Rozova dolina wins by 2+
33%
Yambol 1915 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rozova dolina 1+ goals
85%
Rozova dolina 2+ goals
56%
Rozova dolina 3+ goals
29%
Yambol 1915 1+ goals
64%
Yambol 1915 2+ goals
27%
Yambol 1915 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rozova dolina (draw refunded)
74%
Yambol 1915 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rozova dolina at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.96 · 135 matches

Yambol 1915 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rozova dolina attack 2.10 + Yambol 1915 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.88

Yambol 1915 attack 1.08 + Rozova dolina defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Rozova dolina scores more
57%
level
22%
Yambol 1915 scores more
20%

Rozova dolina at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Rozova dolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rozova dolina vs Yambol 1915

Yambol 1915 beat Rozova dolina 4-3 in Third League - Southeast on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sevtopolis in Kazanlak.