Rozova dolina 6–2 Vereya Stara Zagora

Rozova dolina

FT

6 – 2

Vereya Stara Zagora

11/7/2020

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 14Stadion Sevtopolis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Rozova dolina84%

×Draw11%

Vereya Stara Zagora6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rozova dolinaExpected goals in this matchVereya Stara Zagora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.21

0.74

Rozova dolina

3.21

Vereya Stara Zagora

0.74

Rozova dolina creates 334% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 36 away

2.10

creates per match

0.53

0.96

allows per match

4.31

creates per match

Rozova dolina

2.10

Vereya Stara Zagora

0.53

allows per match

Rozova dolina

0.96

Vereya Stara Zagora

4.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rozova dolina+0.00on par

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rozova dolina ↓

Vereya Stara Zagora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–17%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Rozova dolina or draw

94%

Rozova dolina or Vereya Stara Zagora

89%

Draw or Vereya Stara Zagora

16%

Winning margin

Rozova dolina wins by 2+

66%

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Rozova dolina 1+ goals

96%

Rozova dolina 2+ goals

82%

Rozova dolina 3+ goals

60%

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals

52%

Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals

17%

Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Rozova dolina (draw refunded)

94%

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rozova dolina at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.96 · 135 matches

Vereya Stara Zagora away — creates 0.53, concedes 4.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rozova dolina attack 2.10 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 4.31 → ÷2 → 3.21

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.53 + Rozova dolina defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Rozova dolina scores more

84%

level

11%

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more

6%

Rozova dolina at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Rozova dolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff