Rozova dolina 2–0 Rodopa Smolyan: Result & Stats

Rozova dolina

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rodopa Smolyan

11/23/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 18Stadion Sevtopolis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Rozova dolina60%

×Draw21%

Rodopa Smolyan19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rozova dolinaExpected goals in this matchRodopa Smolyan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.05

Rozova dolina

2.04

Rodopa Smolyan

1.05

Rozova dolina creates 94% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 120 away

2.10

creates per match

1.14

0.96

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Rozova dolina

2.10

Rodopa Smolyan

1.14

allows per match

Rozova dolina

0.96

Rodopa Smolyan

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rozova dolina+0.00on par

Rodopa Smolyan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rozova dolina ↓

Rodopa Smolyan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Rozova dolina or draw

81%

Rozova dolina or Rodopa Smolyan

79%

Draw or Rodopa Smolyan

40%

Winning margin

Rozova dolina wins by 2+

36%

Rodopa Smolyan wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Rozova dolina 1+ goals

87%

Rozova dolina 2+ goals

60%

Rozova dolina 3+ goals

33%

Rodopa Smolyan 1+ goals

65%

Rodopa Smolyan 2+ goals

28%

Rodopa Smolyan 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rozova dolina (draw refunded)

76%

Rodopa Smolyan (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rozova dolina at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.96 · 135 matches

Rodopa Smolyan away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.97 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rozova dolina attack 2.10 + Rodopa Smolyan defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.04

Rodopa Smolyan attack 1.14 + Rozova dolina defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Rozova dolina scores more

60%

level

21%

Rodopa Smolyan scores more

19%

Rozova dolina at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Rozova dolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff