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Royal U20 vs Gremio Anapolis U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Royal U20
Royal U20
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Gremio Anapolis U20
Gremio Anapolis U20
Unknown 71'
Unknown 73', 15', 8'
3/1/2025Goiano U20Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Luiz Alfredo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Royal U2037%
×Draw26%
Gremio Anapolis U2037%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Royal U20
1.30
Gremio Anapolis U20
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 6 away

creates per match

Royal U20
0.94
Gremio Anapolis U20
1.33

allows per match

Royal U20
1.29
Gremio Anapolis U20
1.67

finishing

Royal U20+0.00on par
Gremio Anapolis U20+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal U20 ↓

Gremio Anapolis U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Royal U20 or draw
63%
Royal U20 or Gremio Anapolis U20
74%
Draw or Gremio Anapolis U20
63%

Winning margin

Royal U20 wins by 2+
16%
Gremio Anapolis U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Royal U20 1+ goals
73%
Royal U20 2+ goals
37%
Royal U20 3+ goals
14%
Gremio Anapolis U20 1+ goals
73%
Gremio Anapolis U20 2+ goals
38%
Gremio Anapolis U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Royal U20 (draw refunded)
50%
Gremio Anapolis U20 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal U20 at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Gremio Anapolis U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal U20 attack 0.94 + Gremio Anapolis U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.30

Gremio Anapolis U20 attack 1.33 + Royal U20 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Royal U20 scores more
37%
level
26%
Gremio Anapolis U20 scores more
37%

Royal U20 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Royal U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
15'
45+3'
71'
73'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Goiano U20: Royal U20 1–3 Gremio Anapolis U20

Gremio Anapolis U20 beat Royal U20 3-1 in Goiano U20 on March 1, 2025.

Goals: ? (8', 15', 71', 73').

The match was played at Estádio Luiz Alfredo in Novo Gama, Goiás.