Royal U20 1–0 Goianesia U20: Result & Stats

Royal U20

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Goianesia U20

4/12/2025

Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Ciro Machado do Espírito Santo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Royal U2059%

×Draw24%

Goianesia U2017%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Royal U20Expected goals in this matchGoianesia U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.81

Royal U20

1.72

Goianesia U20

0.81

Royal U20 creates 112% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 6 away

0.94

creates per match

0.33

1.29

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Royal U20

0.94

Goianesia U20

0.33

allows per match

Royal U20

1.29

Goianesia U20

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Royal U20+0.00on par

Goianesia U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal U20 ↓

Goianesia U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Royal U20 or draw

83%

Royal U20 or Goianesia U20

76%

Draw or Goianesia U20

41%

Winning margin

Royal U20 wins by 2+

33%

Goianesia U20 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Royal U20 1+ goals

82%

Royal U20 2+ goals

51%

Royal U20 3+ goals

25%

Goianesia U20 1+ goals

56%

Goianesia U20 2+ goals

19%

Goianesia U20 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Royal U20 (draw refunded)

77%

Goianesia U20 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal U20 at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Goianesia U20 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal U20 attack 0.94 + Goianesia U20 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.72

Goianesia U20 attack 0.33 + Royal U20 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Royal U20 scores more

59%

level

24%

Goianesia U20 scores more

17%

Royal U20 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Royal U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff