Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Royal Pari vs Vaca Díez — Primera División 2019

Royal Pari
Royal Pari
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vaca Díez
Vaca Díez
11/13/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 30Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Royal Pari58%
×Draw21%
Vaca Díez21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Royal Pari
2.04
Vaca Díez
1.13

Royal Pari creates 81% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 16 away

creates per match

Royal Pari
1.65
Vaca Díez
1.00

allows per match

Royal Pari
1.25
Vaca Díez
2.44

finishing

Royal Pari+0.00on par
Vaca Díez+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal Pari ↓

Vaca Díez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Royal Pari or draw
79%
Royal Pari or Vaca Díez
79%
Draw or Vaca Díez
42%

Winning margin

Royal Pari wins by 2+
35%
Vaca Díez wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Royal Pari 1+ goals
87%
Royal Pari 2+ goals
60%
Royal Pari 3+ goals
33%
Vaca Díez 1+ goals
68%
Vaca Díez 2+ goals
31%
Vaca Díez 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Royal Pari (draw refunded)
74%
Vaca Díez (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal Pari at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

Vaca Díez away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal Pari attack 1.65 + Vaca Díez defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.04

Vaca Díez attack 1.00 + Royal Pari defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Royal Pari scores more
58%
level
21%
Vaca Díez scores more
21%

Royal Pari at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Royal Pari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Royal Pari 2–1 Vaca Díez

Royal Pari beat Vaca Díez 2-1 in Primera División on November 13, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas in Santa Cruz de la Sierra.