Royal Pari 0–1 Nacional Potosí: Result & Stats

Royal Pari

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nacional Potosí

2/22/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 2Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Royal Pari48%

×Draw24%

Nacional Potosí28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Royal PariExpected goals in this matchNacional Potosí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.24

Royal Pari

1.71

Nacional Potosí

1.24

Royal Pari creates 38% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 131 away

1.68

creates per match

1.23

1.25

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Royal Pari

1.68

Nacional Potosí

1.23

allows per match

Royal Pari

1.25

Nacional Potosí

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Royal Pari+0.00on par

Nacional Potosí+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal Pari ↓

Nacional Potosí →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Royal Pari or draw

72%

Royal Pari or Nacional Potosí

76%

Draw or Nacional Potosí

52%

Winning margin

Royal Pari wins by 2+

26%

Nacional Potosí wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Royal Pari 1+ goals

82%

Royal Pari 2+ goals

51%

Royal Pari 3+ goals

24%

Nacional Potosí 1+ goals

71%

Nacional Potosí 2+ goals

35%

Nacional Potosí 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Royal Pari (draw refunded)

63%

Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal Pari at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.25 · 111 matches

Nacional Potosí away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.73 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal Pari attack 1.68 + Nacional Potosí defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.71

Nacional Potosí attack 1.23 + Royal Pari defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Royal Pari scores more

48%

level

24%

Nacional Potosí scores more

28%

Royal Pari at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Royal Pari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff