Royal Pari 2–1 Blooming: Result & Stats

Royal Pari

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Blooming

7/20/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 6Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Royal Pari57%

×Draw21%

Blooming21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Royal PariExpected goals in this matchBlooming

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.15

Royal Pari

2.02

Blooming

1.15

Royal Pari creates 76% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 130 away

1.68

creates per match

1.05

1.25

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Royal Pari

1.68

Blooming

1.05

allows per match

Royal Pari

1.25

Blooming

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Royal Pari+0.00on par

Blooming+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal Pari ↓

Blooming →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Royal Pari or draw

79%

Royal Pari or Blooming

79%

Draw or Blooming

43%

Winning margin

Royal Pari wins by 2+

34%

Blooming wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Royal Pari 1+ goals

87%

Royal Pari 2+ goals

60%

Royal Pari 3+ goals

33%

Blooming 1+ goals

68%

Blooming 2+ goals

32%

Blooming 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Royal Pari (draw refunded)

73%

Blooming (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal Pari at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.25 · 111 matches

Blooming away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.35 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal Pari attack 1.68 + Blooming defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.02

Blooming attack 1.05 + Royal Pari defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Royal Pari scores more

57%

level

21%

Blooming scores more

21%

Royal Pari at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Royal Pari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff