Royal Pari 2–2 Aurora: Result & Stats

Royal Pari

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Aurora

10/19/2023

Primera División · Round 28Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Royal Pari52%

×Draw23%

Aurora25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Royal PariExpected goals in this matchAurora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.14

Royal Pari

1.77

Aurora

1.14

Royal Pari creates 55% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 130 away

1.68

creates per match

1.02

1.25

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Royal Pari

1.68

Aurora

1.02

allows per match

Royal Pari

1.25

Aurora

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Royal Pari+0.00on par

Aurora+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal Pari ↓

Aurora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Royal Pari or draw

75%

Royal Pari or Aurora

77%

Draw or Aurora

48%

Winning margin

Royal Pari wins by 2+

29%

Aurora wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Royal Pari 1+ goals

83%

Royal Pari 2+ goals

53%

Royal Pari 3+ goals

26%

Aurora 1+ goals

68%

Aurora 2+ goals

32%

Aurora 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Royal Pari (draw refunded)

68%

Aurora (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal Pari at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.25 · 111 matches

Aurora away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.85 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal Pari attack 1.68 + Aurora defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.77

Aurora attack 1.02 + Royal Pari defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Royal Pari scores more

52%

level

23%

Aurora scores more

25%

Royal Pari at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Royal Pari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff