Royal Leopards 1–0 ZESCO United: Result & Stats

Royal Leopards

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ZESCO United

S. Sakala 60' (OG)

9/11/2021

CAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundMavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Royal Leopards51%

×Draw29%

ZESCO United19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Royal LeopardsExpected goals in this matchZESCO United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.67

Royal Leopards

1.29

ZESCO United

0.67

Royal Leopards creates 93% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

1.25

creates per match

0.83

0.50

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Royal Leopards

1.25

ZESCO United

0.83

allows per match

Royal Leopards

0.50

ZESCO United

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Royal Leopards+0.00on par

ZESCO United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal Leopards ↓

ZESCO United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Royal Leopards or draw

81%

Royal Leopards or ZESCO United

71%

Draw or ZESCO United

49%

Winning margin

Royal Leopards wins by 2+

24%

ZESCO United wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Royal Leopards 1+ goals

72%

Royal Leopards 2+ goals

37%

Royal Leopards 3+ goals

14%

ZESCO United 1+ goals

49%

ZESCO United 2+ goals

15%

ZESCO United 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Royal Leopards (draw refunded)

73%

ZESCO United (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal Leopards at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

ZESCO United away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal Leopards attack 1.25 + ZESCO United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

ZESCO United attack 0.83 + Royal Leopards defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Royal Leopards scores more

51%

level

29%

ZESCO United scores more

19%

Royal Leopards at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Royal Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

T. Kamusoko← C. Mukuka

46'

B. Ndzimandze← S. Nkambule

59'

F. Tsabedze← W. Simelane

60'

S. SakalaOwn goal

63'

E. Sakala← J. Were

73'

C. Mususu← K. Mubanga

82'

Z. Nxumalo← A. Magagula

Royal

ZESCO

1

6

3

14

2

🥅

Sakala

11

Ching’and

7

▼

Mubanga

22

Chapa

4

▼

Mukuka

10

Kalengo

25

▼

Were

16

Dlamini

5

Dlamini

12

▼

4

23

19

18

▼

3

8

17

15

▼

Simelane

Manager: E. Matsebula

46'▲B. Ndzimandze←▼S. Nkambule

59'▲F. Tsabedze←▼W. Simelane

82'▲Z. Nxumalo←▼A. Magagula

Royal Leopards substitutes

6Ndzimandze7Tsabedze20Nxumalo26Dlamini24Maseko11Dlamini13Mokenkoane27Makhanya28Dlamini

Manager: M. Numba

42'▲T. Kamusoko←▼C. Mukuka

63'▲E. Sakala←▼J. Were

73'▲C. Mususu←▼K. Mubanga

ZESCO United substitutes

20Kamusoko28Sakala9Mususu27Mwape30Banda19Malama26Lungu13Chishimba8Rusike