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Royal Leopards vs Young Buffaloes — Premier League 2020

Royal Leopards
Royal Leopards
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Young Buffaloes
Young Buffaloes
5/5/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Mhlume Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Royal Leopards37%
×Draw26%
Young Buffaloes37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Royal Leopards
1.32
Young Buffaloes
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 86 away

creates per match

Royal Leopards
1.86
Young Buffaloes
1.86

allows per match

Royal Leopards
0.81
Young Buffaloes
0.78

finishing

Royal Leopards+0.00on par
Young Buffaloes+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal Leopards ↓

Young Buffaloes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Royal Leopards or draw
63%
Royal Leopards or Young Buffaloes
74%
Draw or Young Buffaloes
63%

Winning margin

Royal Leopards wins by 2+
16%
Young Buffaloes wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Royal Leopards 1+ goals
73%
Royal Leopards 2+ goals
38%
Royal Leopards 3+ goals
15%
Young Buffaloes 1+ goals
74%
Young Buffaloes 2+ goals
38%
Young Buffaloes 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Royal Leopards (draw refunded)
50%
Young Buffaloes (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal Leopards at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.81 · 84 matches

Young Buffaloes away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal Leopards attack 1.86 + Young Buffaloes defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.32

Young Buffaloes attack 1.86 + Royal Leopards defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Royal Leopards scores more
37%
level
26%
Young Buffaloes scores more
37%

Royal Leopards at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Royal Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Royal Leopards vs Young Buffaloes

Royal Leopards and Young Buffaloes drew 0-0 in Premier League on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Mhlume Stadium in Siteki.