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Royal Leopards vs Tambuti — Premier League 2020

Royal Leopards
Royal Leopards
FT
2 – 2
Tambuti
Tambuti
4/5/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Tambankulu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Royal Leopards60%
×Draw22%
Tambuti18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Royal Leopards
1.87
Tambuti
0.90

Royal Leopards creates 108% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 41 away

creates per match

Royal Leopards
1.86
Tambuti
0.98

allows per match

Royal Leopards
0.81
Tambuti
1.88

finishing

Royal Leopards+0.00on par
Tambuti+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal Leopards ↓

Tambuti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Royal Leopards or draw
82%
Royal Leopards or Tambuti
78%
Draw or Tambuti
40%

Winning margin

Royal Leopards wins by 2+
35%
Tambuti wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Royal Leopards 1+ goals
85%
Royal Leopards 2+ goals
56%
Royal Leopards 3+ goals
29%
Tambuti 1+ goals
59%
Tambuti 2+ goals
23%
Tambuti 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Royal Leopards (draw refunded)
77%
Tambuti (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal Leopards at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.81 · 84 matches

Tambuti away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.88 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal Leopards attack 1.86 + Tambuti defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.87

Tambuti attack 0.98 + Royal Leopards defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Royal Leopards scores more
60%
level
22%
Tambuti scores more
18%

Royal Leopards at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Royal Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Royal Leopards vs Tambuti

Royal Leopards and Tambuti drew 2-2 in Premier League on April 5, 2021.

The match was played at Tambankulu Stadium in Tambankulu.