Royal Leopards 4–0 Tambankulu Callies

Royal Leopards

FT

4 – 0

Tambankulu Callies

4/21/2021

Premier League · Round 6Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Royal Leopards59%

×Draw24%

Tambankulu Callies17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Royal LeopardsExpected goals in this matchTambankulu Callies

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.78

Royal Leopards

1.69

Tambankulu Callies

0.78

Royal Leopards creates 117% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 42 away

1.86

creates per match

0.74

0.81

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Royal Leopards

1.86

Tambankulu Callies

0.74

allows per match

Royal Leopards

0.81

Tambankulu Callies

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Royal Leopards+0.00on par

Tambankulu Callies+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal Leopards ↓

Tambankulu Callies →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Royal Leopards or draw

83%

Royal Leopards or Tambankulu Callies

76%

Draw or Tambankulu Callies

41%

Winning margin

Royal Leopards wins by 2+

33%

Tambankulu Callies wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Royal Leopards 1+ goals

82%

Royal Leopards 2+ goals

50%

Royal Leopards 3+ goals

24%

Tambankulu Callies 1+ goals

54%

Tambankulu Callies 2+ goals

18%

Tambankulu Callies 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Royal Leopards (draw refunded)

78%

Tambankulu Callies (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal Leopards at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.81 · 84 matches

Tambankulu Callies away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal Leopards attack 1.86 + Tambankulu Callies defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.69

Tambankulu Callies attack 0.74 + Royal Leopards defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Royal Leopards scores more

59%

level

24%

Tambankulu Callies scores more

17%

Royal Leopards at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Royal Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff