Royal Leopards 1–0 Seven Dreams: Result & Stats

Royal Leopards

FT

1 – 0

Seven Dreams

11/20/2022

Premier League · Round 5Kalanga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Royal Leopards70%

×Draw19%

Seven Dreams11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Royal LeopardsExpected goals in this matchSeven Dreams

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.64

Royal Leopards

2.04

Seven Dreams

0.64

Royal Leopards creates 219% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 13 away

1.86

creates per match

0.46

0.81

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Royal Leopards

1.86

Seven Dreams

0.46

allows per match

Royal Leopards

0.81

Seven Dreams

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Royal Leopards+0.00on par

Seven Dreams+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal Leopards ↓

Seven Dreams →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Royal Leopards or draw

89%

Royal Leopards or Seven Dreams

81%

Draw or Seven Dreams

30%

Winning margin

Royal Leopards wins by 2+

45%

Seven Dreams wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Royal Leopards 1+ goals

87%

Royal Leopards 2+ goals

60%

Royal Leopards 3+ goals

33%

Seven Dreams 1+ goals

47%

Seven Dreams 2+ goals

14%

Seven Dreams 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Royal Leopards (draw refunded)

87%

Seven Dreams (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal Leopards at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.81 · 84 matches

Seven Dreams away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal Leopards attack 1.86 + Seven Dreams defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.04

Seven Dreams attack 0.46 + Royal Leopards defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Royal Leopards scores more

70%

level

19%

Seven Dreams scores more

11%

Royal Leopards at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Royal Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff