Royal Leopards 1–0 Sagrada Esperança

Royal Leopards

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sagrada Esperança

A. Magagula 88'

10/23/2021

CAF Champions League · 2nd Preliminary RoundMavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Royal Leopards66%

×Draw24%

Sagrada Esperança10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Royal LeopardsExpected goals in this matchSagrada Esperança

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.42

Royal Leopards

1.57

Sagrada Esperança

0.42

Royal Leopards creates 274% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

1.25

creates per match

0.33

0.50

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Royal Leopards

1.25

Sagrada Esperança

0.33

allows per match

Royal Leopards

0.50

Sagrada Esperança

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Royal Leopards+0.00on par

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No73
Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal Leopards ↓

Sagrada Esperança →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–17%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Royal Leopards or draw

90%

Royal Leopards or Sagrada Esperança

76%

Draw or Sagrada Esperança

34%

Winning margin

Royal Leopards wins by 2+

37%

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Royal Leopards 1+ goals

79%

Royal Leopards 2+ goals

46%

Royal Leopards 3+ goals

21%

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals

34%

Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals

7%

Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Royal Leopards (draw refunded)

87%

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal Leopards at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Sagrada Esperança away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal Leopards attack 1.25 + Sagrada Esperança defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.57

Sagrada Esperança attack 0.33 + Royal Leopards defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Royal Leopards scores more

66%

level

24%

Sagrada Esperança scores more

10%

Royal Leopards at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Royal Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

F. Tsabedze← W. Simelane

46'

L. Mutambala← L. Yombi

61'

Luís Tati← Mateus

72'

Z. Nxumalo← B. Dlamini

72'

B. Dlamini← M. Maseko

77'

Cachi← José Fernandes Mbuta

88'

A. Magagula

Royal

Sagrada

1

Langanga

14

▼

4

16

17

5

26

▼

31

25

7

9

▼

16

5

23

24

▼

Maseko

19

Matse

18

⚽

Magagula

3

Mabelesa

8

▼

Dlamini

13

Mokenkoan

17

Dlamini

15

▼

Simelane

Manager: E. Matsebula

46'▲F. Tsabedze←▼W. Simelane

72'▲Z. Nxumalo←▼B. Dlamini

72'▲B. Dlamini←▼M. Maseko

Royal Leopards substitutes

7Tsabedze20Nxumalo26Dlamini1Msibi6Ndzimandze11Dlamini12Nkambule21Mbuli

Manager: Francisco Hungo

46'▲L. Mutambala←▼L. Yombi

61'▲Luís Tati←▼Mateus

77'▲Cachi←▼José Fernandes Mbuta

Sagrada Esperança substitutes

22Mutambala20Tati21Cachi3Reginó8Celso13Mutunda27Paciência29Aurélio30Pena