Royal Leopards 1–0 Ezulwini United: Result & Stats

Royal Leopards

FT

1 – 0

Ezulwini United

9/15/2023

Premier League · Round 1Kalanga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Royal Leopards49%

×Draw26%

Ezulwini United24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Royal LeopardsExpected goals in this matchEzulwini United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.96

Royal Leopards

1.49

Ezulwini United

0.96

Royal Leopards creates 55% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 41 away

1.86

creates per match

1.10

0.81

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Royal Leopards

1.86

Ezulwini United

1.10

allows per match

Royal Leopards

0.81

Ezulwini United

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Royal Leopards+0.00on par

Ezulwini United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal Leopards ↓

Ezulwini United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Royal Leopards or draw

76%

Royal Leopards or Ezulwini United

74%

Draw or Ezulwini United

51%

Winning margin

Royal Leopards wins by 2+

25%

Ezulwini United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Royal Leopards 1+ goals

77%

Royal Leopards 2+ goals

44%

Royal Leopards 3+ goals

19%

Ezulwini United 1+ goals

62%

Ezulwini United 2+ goals

25%

Ezulwini United 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Royal Leopards (draw refunded)

67%

Ezulwini United (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal Leopards at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.81 · 84 matches

Ezulwini United away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal Leopards attack 1.86 + Ezulwini United defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.49

Ezulwini United attack 1.10 + Royal Leopards defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Royal Leopards scores more

49%

level

26%

Ezulwini United scores more

24%

Royal Leopards at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Royal Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff