Ezulwini United 0–0 Royal Leopards: Result & Stats

Ezulwini United

FT

0 – 0

Royal Leopards

4/13/2024

Premier League · Round 16Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Ezulwini United23%

×Draw25%

Royal Leopards51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ezulwini UnitedExpected goals in this matchRoyal Leopards

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.57

Ezulwini United

0.97

Royal Leopards

1.57

Royal Leopards creates 62% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 85 away

0.98

creates per match

1.88

1.27

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Ezulwini United

0.98

Royal Leopards

1.88

allows per match

Ezulwini United

1.27

Royal Leopards

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ezulwini United+0.00on par

Royal Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ezulwini United ↓

Royal Leopards →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ezulwini United or draw

49%

Ezulwini United or Royal Leopards

75%

Draw or Royal Leopards

77%

Winning margin

Ezulwini United wins by 2+

8%

Royal Leopards wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Ezulwini United 1+ goals

62%

Ezulwini United 2+ goals

25%

Ezulwini United 3+ goals

7%

Royal Leopards 1+ goals

79%

Royal Leopards 2+ goals

46%

Royal Leopards 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Ezulwini United (draw refunded)

31%

Royal Leopards (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ezulwini United at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.27 · 41 matches

Royal Leopards away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.96 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ezulwini United attack 0.98 + Royal Leopards defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.97

Royal Leopards attack 1.88 + Ezulwini United defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ezulwini United scores more

23%

level

25%

Royal Leopards scores more

51%

Royal Leopards at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Royal Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff