Royal Leopards 2–0 Denver: Result & Stats

Royal Leopards

FT

2 – 0

Denver

4/14/2021

Premier League · Round 5King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Royal Leopards59%

×Draw24%

Denver16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Royal LeopardsExpected goals in this matchDenver

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.73

Royal Leopards

1.65

Denver

0.73

Royal Leopards creates 126% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 14 away

1.86

creates per match

0.64

0.81

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Royal Leopards

1.86

Denver

0.64

allows per match

Royal Leopards

0.81

Denver

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Royal Leopards+0.00on par

Denver+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal Leopards ↓

Denver →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Royal Leopards or draw

84%

Royal Leopards or Denver

76%

Draw or Denver

41%

Winning margin

Royal Leopards wins by 2+

33%

Denver wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Royal Leopards 1+ goals

81%

Royal Leopards 2+ goals

49%

Royal Leopards 3+ goals

23%

Denver 1+ goals

52%

Denver 2+ goals

17%

Denver 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Royal Leopards (draw refunded)

78%

Denver (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal Leopards at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.81 · 84 matches

Denver away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal Leopards attack 1.86 + Denver defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.65

Denver attack 0.64 + Royal Leopards defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Royal Leopards scores more

59%

level

24%

Denver scores more

16%

Royal Leopards at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Royal Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff