Royal Excel Mouscron 0–2 Union St. Gilloise

Royal Excel Mouscron

FT

0 – 2

Union St. Gilloise

8/1/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stade Le Canonnier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Royal Excel Mouscron18%

×Draw19%

Union St. Gilloise63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Royal Excel MouscronExpected goals in this matchUnion St. Gilloise

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

2.33

Royal Excel Mouscron

1.18

Union St. Gilloise

2.33

Union St. Gilloise creates 97% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

1.67

creates per match

3.00

1.67

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Royal Excel Mouscron

1.67

Union St. Gilloise

3.00

allows per match

Royal Excel Mouscron

1.67

Union St. Gilloise

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Royal Excel Mouscron+0.00on par

Union St. Gilloise+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal Excel Mouscron ↓

Union St. Gilloise →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Royal Excel Mouscron or draw

37%

Royal Excel Mouscron or Union St. Gilloise

81%

Draw or Union St. Gilloise

82%

Winning margin

Royal Excel Mouscron wins by 2+

7%

Union St. Gilloise wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Royal Excel Mouscron 1+ goals

69%

Royal Excel Mouscron 2+ goals

33%

Royal Excel Mouscron 3+ goals

12%

Union St. Gilloise 1+ goals

90%

Union St. Gilloise 2+ goals

67%

Union St. Gilloise 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Royal Excel Mouscron (draw refunded)

23%

Union St. Gilloise (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal Excel Mouscron at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Union St. Gilloise away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal Excel Mouscron attack 1.67 + Union St. Gilloise defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.18

Union St. Gilloise attack 3.00 + Royal Excel Mouscron defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Royal Excel Mouscron scores more

18%

level

19%

Union St. Gilloise scores more

63%

Union St. Gilloise at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Union St. Gilloise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff