Royal Excel Mouscron 0–1 KV Mechelen

Royal Excel Mouscron

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

KV Mechelen

N. Storm 9' (pen)

8/14/2020

Jupiler Pro League · Round 2Stade Le Canonnier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Royal Excel Mouscron45%

×Draw26%

KV Mechelen29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Royal Excel MouscronExpected goals in this matchKV Mechelen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.15

Royal Excel Mouscron

1.48

KV Mechelen

1.15

Royal Excel Mouscron creates 29% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 130 away

1.23

creates per match

1.25

1.04

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Royal Excel Mouscron

1.23

KV Mechelen

1.25

allows per match

Royal Excel Mouscron

1.04

KV Mechelen

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Royal Excel Mouscron+0.00on par

KV Mechelen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal Excel Mouscron ↓

KV Mechelen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Royal Excel Mouscron or draw

71%

Royal Excel Mouscron or KV Mechelen

74%

Draw or KV Mechelen

55%

Winning margin

Royal Excel Mouscron wins by 2+

22%

KV Mechelen wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Royal Excel Mouscron 1+ goals

77%

Royal Excel Mouscron 2+ goals

43%

Royal Excel Mouscron 3+ goals

19%

KV Mechelen 1+ goals

68%

KV Mechelen 2+ goals

32%

KV Mechelen 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Royal Excel Mouscron (draw refunded)

60%

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal Excel Mouscron at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.04 · 48 matches

KV Mechelen away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.72 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal Excel Mouscron attack 1.23 + KV Mechelen defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.48

KV Mechelen attack 1.25 + Royal Excel Mouscron defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Royal Excel Mouscron scores more

45%

level

26%

KV Mechelen scores more

29%

Royal Excel Mouscron at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Royal Excel Mouscron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Hervé Koffi

8'

Nemanja Antonov

9'

N. StormPenalty

48'

Marko Bakić

48'

Rocky Bushiri Kiranga

48'

Joachim Van Damme

59'

I. de Camargo← A. Vranckx

78'

E. Sağlık← B. Badibanga

78'

S. Tabekou← I. Faraj

80'

O. Kaya← N. Storm

84'

C. Omoigui← V. Postolachi

84'

J. Vanlerberghe← W. Togui

86'

Gaëtan Coucke

Statistics

RoyalKV

Overview

5Corners5

Discipline

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0