Royal Excel Mouscron 0–1 Gent: Result & Stats

Royal Excel Mouscron

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gent

N. Dorsch 14'

9/19/2020

Jupiler Pro League · Round 6Stade Le Canonnier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Royal Excel Mouscron37%

×Draw27%

Gent37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Royal Excel MouscronExpected goals in this matchGent

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

Royal Excel Mouscron

1.27

Gent

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 155 away

1.19

creates per match

1.50

1.04

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Royal Excel Mouscron

1.19

Gent

1.50

allows per match

Royal Excel Mouscron

1.04

Gent

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Royal Excel Mouscron+0.00on par

Gent+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal Excel Mouscron ↓

Gent →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Royal Excel Mouscron or draw

63%

Royal Excel Mouscron or Gent

73%

Draw or Gent

63%

Winning margin

Royal Excel Mouscron wins by 2+

16%

Gent wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Royal Excel Mouscron 1+ goals

72%

Royal Excel Mouscron 2+ goals

36%

Royal Excel Mouscron 3+ goals

14%

Gent 1+ goals

72%

Gent 2+ goals

36%

Gent 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Royal Excel Mouscron (draw refunded)

50%

Gent (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal Excel Mouscron at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 47 matches

Gent away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.35 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal Excel Mouscron attack 1.19 + Gent defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Gent attack 1.50 + Royal Excel Mouscron defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Royal Excel Mouscron scores more

37%

level

27%

Gent scores more

37%

Royal Excel Mouscron at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Royal Excel Mouscron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

N. Dorsch

24'

Saad Agouzoul

31'

V. Odjidja-Ofoe← S. Kums

40'

I. Faraj← D. Mohamed

68'

O. Bukari← J. Botaka

77'

Osvaldo Capemba← S. Tabekou

77'

C. Brym← B. Badibanga

77'

T. Kleindienst← L. Depoitre

81'

Alessandro Ciranni

85'

Benjamin van Durmen

Statistics

RoyalGent

Overview

2Corners0

Discipline

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0