Royal Excel Mouscron 2–3 Antwerp: Result & Stats

Royal Excel Mouscron

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Antwerp

4/12/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 33Stade Le Canonnier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Royal Excel Mouscron37%

×Draw28%

Antwerp34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Royal Excel MouscronExpected goals in this matchAntwerp

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.13

Royal Excel Mouscron

1.19

Antwerp

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 153 away

1.19

creates per match

1.22

1.04

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Royal Excel Mouscron

1.19

Antwerp

1.22

allows per match

Royal Excel Mouscron

1.04

Antwerp

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Royal Excel Mouscron+0.00on par

Antwerp+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal Excel Mouscron ↓

Antwerp →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Royal Excel Mouscron or draw

66%

Royal Excel Mouscron or Antwerp

72%

Draw or Antwerp

63%

Winning margin

Royal Excel Mouscron wins by 2+

16%

Antwerp wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Royal Excel Mouscron 1+ goals

70%

Royal Excel Mouscron 2+ goals

33%

Royal Excel Mouscron 3+ goals

12%

Antwerp 1+ goals

68%

Antwerp 2+ goals

31%

Antwerp 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Royal Excel Mouscron (draw refunded)

52%

Antwerp (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal Excel Mouscron at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 47 matches

Antwerp away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.20 · 153 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal Excel Mouscron attack 1.19 + Antwerp defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Antwerp attack 1.22 + Royal Excel Mouscron defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Royal Excel Mouscron scores more

37%

level

28%

Antwerp scores more

34%

Royal Excel Mouscron at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Royal Excel Mouscron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff