Royal AM 1–1 Baroka FC: Result & Stats

Royal AM

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Baroka FC

L. Mashiane 28'

B. Goldstone 12'

11/7/2021

Premier Soccer League · Round 8Chatsworth Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Royal AM44%

×Draw30%

Baroka FC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Royal AMExpected goals in this matchBaroka FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.87

Royal AM

1.21

Baroka FC

0.87

Royal AM creates 39% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 62 away

1.08

creates per match

0.76

0.98

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Royal AM

1.08

Baroka FC

0.76

allows per match

Royal AM

0.98

Baroka FC

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Royal AM+0.00on par

Baroka FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal AM ↓

Baroka FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Royal AM or draw

73%

Royal AM or Baroka FC

70%

Draw or Baroka FC

56%

Winning margin

Royal AM wins by 2+

19%

Baroka FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Royal AM 1+ goals

70%

Royal AM 2+ goals

34%

Royal AM 3+ goals

12%

Baroka FC 1+ goals

58%

Baroka FC 2+ goals

22%

Baroka FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Royal AM (draw refunded)

62%

Baroka FC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal AM at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Baroka FC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal AM attack 1.08 + Baroka FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.21

Baroka FC attack 0.76 + Royal AM defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Royal AM scores more

44%

level

30%

Baroka FC scores more

27%

Royal AM at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Royal AM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

B. Goldstone↳ E. Makgopa

22'

26'

28'

39'

44'

46'

L. Phalane← L. Mashiane

46'

D. Chauke← B. Bobete

59'

J. Kamatuka← K. Monama

60'

S George

63'

Tshepo Mokhabi

76'

T. Nikitaridis← T. Mokhabi

90+3'

E. Seema← J. Kamatuka

Possession

Shots

Statistics

RoyalBaroka

Overview

60%Possession40%

9Total Shots6

6Corners4

7Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots6

3On Target2

6Off Target4

Passing

60%Possession40%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0