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Round Rock vs Houston FC — USL League Two 2018

Round Rock
Round Rock
FT
1 – 3
Houston FC
Houston FC
6/19/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 29Round Rock Multipurpose Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Round Rock36%
×Draw23%
Houston FC41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Round Rock
1.60
Houston FC
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 41 away

creates per match

Round Rock
1.10
Houston FC
1.34

allows per match

Round Rock
2.10
Houston FC
2.10

finishing

Round Rock+0.00on par
Houston FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Round Rock ↓

Houston FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Round Rock or draw
59%
Round Rock or Houston FC
77%
Draw or Houston FC
64%

Winning margin

Round Rock wins by 2+
18%
Houston FC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Round Rock 1+ goals
80%
Round Rock 2+ goals
47%
Round Rock 3+ goals
22%
Houston FC 1+ goals
82%
Houston FC 2+ goals
51%
Houston FC 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Round Rock (draw refunded)
47%
Houston FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Round Rock at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.10 · 20 matches

Houston FC away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.10 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Round Rock attack 1.10 + Houston FC defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.60

Houston FC attack 1.34 + Round Rock defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Round Rock scores more
36%
level
23%
Houston FC scores more
41%

Houston FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Houston FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Round Rock vs Houston FC

Houston FC beat Round Rock 3-1 in USL League Two on June 19, 2021.

The match was played at Round Rock Multipurpose Complex in Round Rock, Texas.