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Houston FC vs Round Rock — USL League Two 2018

Houston FC
Houston FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Round Rock
Round Rock
6/29/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 13Westbury Christian School Athletic Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Houston FC56%
×Draw20%
Round Rock24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Houston FC
2.33
Round Rock
1.47

Houston FC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 20 away

creates per match

Houston FC
1.50
Round Rock
1.25

allows per match

Houston FC
1.69
Round Rock
3.15

finishing

Houston FC+0.00on par
Round Rock+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Houston FC ↓

Round Rock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Houston FC or draw
76%
Houston FC or Round Rock
80%
Draw or Round Rock
44%

Winning margin

Houston FC wins by 2+
35%
Round Rock wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Houston FC 1+ goals
90%
Houston FC 2+ goals
67%
Houston FC 3+ goals
41%
Round Rock 1+ goals
77%
Round Rock 2+ goals
43%
Round Rock 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Houston FC (draw refunded)
70%
Round Rock (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Houston FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.69 · 42 matches

Round Rock away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Houston FC attack 1.50 + Round Rock defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.33

Round Rock attack 1.25 + Houston FC defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Houston FC scores more
56%
level
20%
Round Rock scores more
24%

Houston FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Houston FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Houston FC 1–1 Round Rock

Houston FC and Round Rock drew 1-1 in USL League Two on June 29, 2023.

The match was played at Westbury Christian School Athletic Complex in Houston, Texas.