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Round Rock vs Brazos Valley — USL League Two 2018

Round Rock
Round Rock
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Brazos Valley
Brazos Valley
7/11/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 69Round Rock Multipurpose Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Round Rock25%
×Draw21%
Brazos Valley54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Round Rock
1.39
Brazos Valley
2.11

Brazos Valley creates 52% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 42 away

creates per match

Round Rock
1.10
Brazos Valley
2.12

allows per match

Round Rock
2.10
Brazos Valley
1.67

finishing

Round Rock+0.00on par
Brazos Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Round Rock ↓

Brazos Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Round Rock or draw
46%
Round Rock or Brazos Valley
79%
Draw or Brazos Valley
75%

Winning margin

Round Rock wins by 2+
11%
Brazos Valley wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Round Rock 1+ goals
75%
Round Rock 2+ goals
40%
Round Rock 3+ goals
16%
Brazos Valley 1+ goals
88%
Brazos Valley 2+ goals
62%
Brazos Valley 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Round Rock (draw refunded)
32%
Brazos Valley (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Round Rock at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.10 · 20 matches

Brazos Valley away — creates 2.12, concedes 1.67 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Round Rock attack 1.10 + Brazos Valley defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Brazos Valley attack 2.12 + Round Rock defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Round Rock scores more
25%
level
21%
Brazos Valley scores more
54%

Brazos Valley at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Brazos Valley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Round Rock 0–3 Brazos Valley

Brazos Valley beat Round Rock 3-0 in USL League Two on July 11, 2022.

The match was played at Round Rock Multipurpose Complex in Round Rock, Texas.