Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Round Rock vs AHFC Royals — USL League Two 2018

Round Rock
Round Rock
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 3
AHFC Royals
AHFC Royals
6/8/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 7Hutto Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Round Rock25%
×Draw21%
AHFC Royals53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Round Rock
1.38
AHFC Royals
2.08

AHFC Royals creates 51% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 44 away

creates per match

Round Rock
1.10
AHFC Royals
2.05

allows per match

Round Rock
2.10
AHFC Royals
1.66

finishing

Round Rock+0.00on par
AHFC Royals+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Round Rock ↓

AHFC Royals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Round Rock or draw
47%
Round Rock or AHFC Royals
79%
Draw or AHFC Royals
75%

Winning margin

Round Rock wins by 2+
11%
AHFC Royals wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Round Rock 1+ goals
75%
Round Rock 2+ goals
40%
Round Rock 3+ goals
16%
AHFC Royals 1+ goals
87%
AHFC Royals 2+ goals
61%
AHFC Royals 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Round Rock (draw refunded)
32%
AHFC Royals (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Round Rock at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.10 · 20 matches

AHFC Royals away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.66 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Round Rock attack 1.10 + AHFC Royals defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.38

AHFC Royals attack 2.05 + Round Rock defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Round Rock scores more
25%
level
21%
AHFC Royals scores more
53%

AHFC Royals at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "AHFC Royals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Round Rock vs AHFC Royals

AHFC Royals beat Round Rock 7-0 in USL League Two on June 8, 2023.

The match was played at Hutto Memorial Stadium in Hutto, Texas.